Why Rangers are not heavy underdogs entering the Stanley Cup Finals

Before people write off the Rangers as heavy underdogs (which is absurd) consider this:

 

1) Kings have played 7 games in all 3 series so far while playing OT against the Blackhawks in 2 of them. That equals miles on the legs and the main guy who ate those minutes is Drew Doughty, who is averaging around 28 mpg of ice time. PK Subban was logging those kind of minutes and he looked absolutely gassed in games 5 and 6.

 

Due to this, I expect the Rangers to play a very physical style of play, similar to the strategy against MTL, in dominating the puck possession game in the offensive zone while limiting counter-attacks. This was effective in tiring the legs of the D-men on MTL and guys like Zuc, Hags, MSL, and Kreider can use their speed to generate scoring opps, while also keeping them from breaking out in the neutral zone. Kings will likely be ready for the stretch passes and "alley oops" to those guys but speed creates chances and Rangers have a distinct advantage in that department which will keep the Kings on their heels when their top D-line is off the ice.

 

2) The Kings fell behind a bunch of times to the Blackhawks and came back (3 blown 2 goal leads). However, the Rangers demonstrated that when they get an early lead, they are willing to choke the hell  out of the offensive aspect of the game and force you to beat Henrik 5-on-5. I do fear the Carter-King combo blocking Henrik's view but I don't see Gaborik having the open space that he had the luxury of seeing against the Hawks. Crosby and Malkin/ Giroux and Hartnell all had to work with much less ice space and Gaborik/ Kopitar are going to have to find a way to get into prime scoring position.

 

3) The rebound control in the Kings-Hawks series was just horrific. People think Henrik had to make that 1 incredible blocker save and wasn't tested the rest of the night but now see what can happen on any of the 17 other shots that he faced. On Carter's batted in goal, Crawford had a harmless shot on net that could have easily been placed into the corner out of harms way. But he popped the puck straight into the air and didn't have a clue of where it was until Carter knocked it past him.

 

 

 

Apologies for quality but the black circle is where the puck is. Flat on the ice after a 30+foot wrister. This should be a textbook save by sending the puck into the corner as Carter (blue circle) bares down on the goalie. As mentioned above, these were the types of 17 other shots Henrik faced in game 6 against MTL. It's not just about stopping pucks but the rebound control as well. The yellow line is where the puck should be going as the puck is shot at the right leg pad.

 

 

Instead, Crawford pops the puck up in the air (black circle) as he is crouched on the ice. When you talk about big moments in a game 7 at home trying to clinch a Stanley Cup berth, this has to be one of the worst plays your goalie can make for you. Carter bats it in and gets the Kings back in the game. 

 

Kings had 2 strong offensive sets going for them:

1) PP opportunities created by Doughty (great screens from centers in particular)

2) Finding loose pucks/rebounds off of Crawford or other bodies and burying it around the net. Rangers are a much more skilled shot-blocking team as all credit goes to Torts for creating that skill. The angles get cut down and 98% of the time, the blocks don't end up in deflections on their own goalie.

Take the GW goal for another example, which could be looked at as "luck" and everything wrong with hockey how a lucky bounce ends a series. But it was really just awful technique of shot blocking by Leddy. See below the screencap of the setup just before Martinez shoots the puck...

 

 

 

notice how Leddy (#8) is not in the shooting lane of Martinez's shot as he stays with Toffoli (#73) who he actually doesn't even put a stick or body on which leaves him open to a deflection. He is really in bad position here as he isn't impeding Toffoli and he isn't lined up with the shot. He actually has to slide his body over mid-shot to get a piece of it. Other thing to notice is that Martinez has very little angle to shoot as he is cut down by Ben Smith. Kings have absolutely nobody screening Crawford and the only man who can make this shot more difficult is Leddy.

 

 

 

Here is the mid-shot image. See what Leddy is doing with his leg? He sticks it out while sliding over on a harmless wrister that Crawford is in perfect position to eat up in his chest (though who knows whether he would have let up a juicy rebound as he did all series). Leddy still has a few more inches to cover before getting in line with the puck so he can keep it in front of him or make a deliberate deflection. But he decides to continue on the path of just desperately blocking a harmless shot, and ultimately deflects the puck off his stuck out leg and into the net and ending the series.

 

From what Coach AV and he processor in Torts instilled in the Rangers, these types of plays simply won't happen. Henrik was off his game in game 5 but other than that, in the 9 games since going down 3-1 to Pittsburgh, the Rangers have been in complete control of dictating the tempo of gameplay to their style.

 

4) Marian Gaborik - I loved him in NY and felt Tortorella was way too harsh on him (as well as Kreider) for not "buying" into the system. But there is truth to what Torts hated about Gaborik. He will not battle in the corners and is known to wait around slot areas for scoring chances. Rangers probably know better than any other team what this guy does offensively and what he doesn't do defensively. He scored 12 goals in 21 games so far but I expect, and hope, the Rangers make his life a living hell and force him to play some defense in his own zone (good luck getting him to block a shot) and get "dirty" on the boards which he was NOT willing to do in NY.

 

5) Lastly, hot goaltending can give a team confidence and Rangers love the ability to play with a lead in front of a hot Henrik. The kryptonite would be turnovers and dumb penalties which Pouliot can single handedly accomplish. This team is built around Henrik and play with speed and power and not giving up many counter rushes. There is a reason why the Rangers tend to win low-scoring games. That is the kind of game that they want to play. As soon as Dominic Moore scored in game 6 to give a 1-0 lead heading into the 3rd, the Rangers dared Montreal to break through on Henrik for the tying goal with 5 guys set. Had they scored, Rangers would have been forced to go for the 2nd goal but they understand that hockey isn't about scoring 5 goals a game...it's about outscoring your opponent. If Henrik continues his play of late, and the Rangers make the Kings earn every single shift, instead of helping them out by hurting themselves, this will not be a quick series by any means.

 

The biggest test will be how the Kings respond to a brand new series after playing 21 games to get here and having their stars log some serious minutes. Bruins saw Chara get affected with fatigue of 30mpg as well as the Canadiens with PK Subban. Drew Doughty is clearly the catalyst to the Kings blue line and how his legs respond to constant forecheck and physicality of the Rangers forwards, after a grueling series with Chicago, will be the X-factor in how this series plays out.  

 

LGR!