Why Rangers are not heavy underdogs entering the Stanley Cup Finals

Before people write off the Rangers as heavy underdogs (which is absurd) consider this:

 

1) Kings have played 7 games in all 3 series so far while playing OT against the Blackhawks in 2 of them. That equals miles on the legs and the main guy who ate those minutes is Drew Doughty, who is averaging around 28 mpg of ice time. PK Subban was logging those kind of minutes and he looked absolutely gassed in games 5 and 6.

 

Due to this, I expect the Rangers to play a very physical style of play, similar to the strategy against MTL, in dominating the puck possession game in the offensive zone while limiting counter-attacks. This was effective in tiring the legs of the D-men on MTL and guys like Zuc, Hags, MSL, and Kreider can use their speed to generate scoring opps, while also keeping them from breaking out in the neutral zone. Kings will likely be ready for the stretch passes and "alley oops" to those guys but speed creates chances and Rangers have a distinct advantage in that department which will keep the Kings on their heels when their top D-line is off the ice.

 

2) The Kings fell behind a bunch of times to the Blackhawks and came back (3 blown 2 goal leads). However, the Rangers demonstrated that when they get an early lead, they are willing to choke the hell  out of the offensive aspect of the game and force you to beat Henrik 5-on-5. I do fear the Carter-King combo blocking Henrik's view but I don't see Gaborik having the open space that he had the luxury of seeing against the Hawks. Crosby and Malkin/ Giroux and Hartnell all had to work with much less ice space and Gaborik/ Kopitar are going to have to find a way to get into prime scoring position.

 

3) The rebound control in the Kings-Hawks series was just horrific. People think Henrik had to make that 1 incredible blocker save and wasn't tested the rest of the night but now see what can happen on any of the 17 other shots that he faced. On Carter's batted in goal, Crawford had a harmless shot on net that could have easily been placed into the corner out of harms way. But he popped the puck straight into the air and didn't have a clue of where it was until Carter knocked it past him.

 

 

 

Apologies for quality but the black circle is where the puck is. Flat on the ice after a 30+foot wrister. This should be a textbook save by sending the puck into the corner as Carter (blue circle) bares down on the goalie. As mentioned above, these were the types of 17 other shots Henrik faced in game 6 against MTL. It's not just about stopping pucks but the rebound control as well. The yellow line is where the puck should be going as the puck is shot at the right leg pad.

 

 

Instead, Crawford pops the puck up in the air (black circle) as he is crouched on the ice. When you talk about big moments in a game 7 at home trying to clinch a Stanley Cup berth, this has to be one of the worst plays your goalie can make for you. Carter bats it in and gets the Kings back in the game. 

 

Kings had 2 strong offensive sets going for them:

1) PP opportunities created by Doughty (great screens from centers in particular)

2) Finding loose pucks/rebounds off of Crawford or other bodies and burying it around the net. Rangers are a much more skilled shot-blocking team as all credit goes to Torts for creating that skill. The angles get cut down and 98% of the time, the blocks don't end up in deflections on their own goalie.

Take the GW goal for another example, which could be looked at as "luck" and everything wrong with hockey how a lucky bounce ends a series. But it was really just awful technique of shot blocking by Leddy. See below the screencap of the setup just before Martinez shoots the puck...

 

 

 

notice how Leddy (#8) is not in the shooting lane of Martinez's shot as he stays with Toffoli (#73) who he actually doesn't even put a stick or body on which leaves him open to a deflection. He is really in bad position here as he isn't impeding Toffoli and he isn't lined up with the shot. He actually has to slide his body over mid-shot to get a piece of it. Other thing to notice is that Martinez has very little angle to shoot as he is cut down by Ben Smith. Kings have absolutely nobody screening Crawford and the only man who can make this shot more difficult is Leddy.

 

 

 

Here is the mid-shot image. See what Leddy is doing with his leg? He sticks it out while sliding over on a harmless wrister that Crawford is in perfect position to eat up in his chest (though who knows whether he would have let up a juicy rebound as he did all series). Leddy still has a few more inches to cover before getting in line with the puck so he can keep it in front of him or make a deliberate deflection. But he decides to continue on the path of just desperately blocking a harmless shot, and ultimately deflects the puck off his stuck out leg and into the net and ending the series.

 

From what Coach AV and he processor in Torts instilled in the Rangers, these types of plays simply won't happen. Henrik was off his game in game 5 but other than that, in the 9 games since going down 3-1 to Pittsburgh, the Rangers have been in complete control of dictating the tempo of gameplay to their style.

 

4) Marian Gaborik - I loved him in NY and felt Tortorella was way too harsh on him (as well as Kreider) for not "buying" into the system. But there is truth to what Torts hated about Gaborik. He will not battle in the corners and is known to wait around slot areas for scoring chances. Rangers probably know better than any other team what this guy does offensively and what he doesn't do defensively. He scored 12 goals in 21 games so far but I expect, and hope, the Rangers make his life a living hell and force him to play some defense in his own zone (good luck getting him to block a shot) and get "dirty" on the boards which he was NOT willing to do in NY.

 

5) Lastly, hot goaltending can give a team confidence and Rangers love the ability to play with a lead in front of a hot Henrik. The kryptonite would be turnovers and dumb penalties which Pouliot can single handedly accomplish. This team is built around Henrik and play with speed and power and not giving up many counter rushes. There is a reason why the Rangers tend to win low-scoring games. That is the kind of game that they want to play. As soon as Dominic Moore scored in game 6 to give a 1-0 lead heading into the 3rd, the Rangers dared Montreal to break through on Henrik for the tying goal with 5 guys set. Had they scored, Rangers would have been forced to go for the 2nd goal but they understand that hockey isn't about scoring 5 goals a game...it's about outscoring your opponent. If Henrik continues his play of late, and the Rangers make the Kings earn every single shift, instead of helping them out by hurting themselves, this will not be a quick series by any means.

 

The biggest test will be how the Kings respond to a brand new series after playing 21 games to get here and having their stars log some serious minutes. Bruins saw Chara get affected with fatigue of 30mpg as well as the Canadiens with PK Subban. Drew Doughty is clearly the catalyst to the Kings blue line and how his legs respond to constant forecheck and physicality of the Rangers forwards, after a grueling series with Chicago, will be the X-factor in how this series plays out.  

 

LGR!

 

 

Breakdown of how TB scored GW goal and why Del Zotto should stop seeing 15+ min ice time (and why Rangers can't protect a lead anymore)

The Rangers suffered a terrible home loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning 2-1 after collecting 9 out of 10 points in the previous 5 games. But anyone watching the game will tell you that the Rangers completely outplayed the Lightning but when you face a goalie that owns you, like Ben Bishop does (5-0 against the Rangers), you need to understand that it will be a low scoring affair.

Which is exactly what happened last night. Henrik Lundqvist, who is back to his old self after losing playing time to Cam Talbot early on, was being matched by likely Vezina finalist, Ben Bishop. If you don't know who Ben Bishop is, he was stuck on the Senators depth chart behind Craig Anderson and is a 6"6 beast who could be the exact goalie that the US can ride to an upset Gold run in Sochi. Except he got left off because of worries that he can't handle a bigger stage. Last night showed what he is capable of and he was an absolute wall. After Rangers played their usual conservative style after taking a 1-0 early lead. After Victor Hedman scores on a 55 foot slapshot from the point on the PP, Coach AV decides to roll out the defensive pairing of John Moore and MDZ for the following faceoff. Granted, McD and DG5 had just been on the ice for the tying goal but at home, in a likely low scoring game, I would rather see Staal-Stralman pairing, who have been the Rangers best pairing on the season as shown on this player usage chart:

To quickly explain, the Y-axis represents the quality of competition on the ice at the time, where a positive number means the D-man is facing a line that is better than the average NHL line and where a negative number means the competition is lower than average. The x-axis is where the puck/faceoff is when the player comes onto the ice. Since we are only dealing with defensemen in this example, you expect to see a lower offensive zone start % and higher quality of competition for premier defenders for the logical reason that you want them on the ice to defend against top lines in your own blue line where the highest % chance of scoring takes place. The last thing to know is that a "red" bubble means that player has a - relative corsi score on the season and blue means positive (Note: Corsi is a rating given based on shots for/against while a player is on the ice and includes blocked shots). The reason why it is important to use this chart when analyzing corsi is because you will see
2 pairings that are negative corsi and think "they must both be having equally bad years". But a closer look shows that eventhough Girardi-McD have a negative Corsi, they are facing the best competition and start in the offensive zone only 46% of the time. The other red pairing, MDZ-Moore are the complete opposite. They have every reason NOT to give up shots since they are facing below average competition and start over 55% of the time in the offensive zone.

You only need a brief understanding to follow this next point. See that little red dot on the bottom portion smack in the middle? That is Michael Del Zotto's red dot. He is by far their least trusted defenseman when it comes to quality of competition and John Moore is a close second. So who comes out at neutral ice once the Rangers lose momentum and give up a tying goal? The 2 least trusted defensemen on the roster and they live up to their reputations by giving up an inexcusable breakaway opportunity to Tampa's 3rd line and ultimately, the GW goal. Here is my breakdown of the play....specifically what Del Zotto did (or lackthereof).

This first image shows the back end of the designed play by TB off of the faceoff win. The eventual goal scorer, Nikita Kucherov, is seen on the far right, circled in blue, changing directions from end boards to the middle of the ice. If you look closely, you can see Del Zotto, the Ranger in the blue circle, with his skates completely squared up and his right foot is even facing toward the end boards while giving a good amount of space for Kucherov to maneuver however he wants and take a clean path to the middle, which is shown by the red line. The least Del Zotto can do here is close the gap of space between him and the guy he is supposed to be defending so it can throw off the timing of the play. But Del Zotto, as Rangers fans have seen many times this year, decides to sit back eventhough he lacks the speed to make up for lost strides. This is just brutal positioning on his part as we take a look at what happens next...

Here you can see what is beginning to develop. John Moore is the Ranger on the top left corner who has to watch for a cross-diagonal pass to the left winger who is not shown in the picture. That leaves MDZ 1-on-1 with Kucherov with the middle of the ice wide open and MDZ drifting further toward the end boards as explained above. The yellow space is the separation shown in one stride (compared to the first image) and as you can see from this angle, it would take an absolutely blind d-man to not see the breakaway opportunity. The other thing to notice is the change in position by Ranger forward, Benoit Pouliot, who is more known for offensive ability than defensive. In the first image, he is taking away the middle of the ice pass but in the 2nd image above, you see just how far past the TB defenseman he has gone. If he stayed in line as the original image, this pass probably doesn't get through or at least throws off the timing. So now you see 2 Rangers overplay toward the endboard leaving the middle of the ice wide open. The pass is already being sent off the stick at this point and the next image will completely shock you...

Finally, you see that yellow space become wider than a full body length. If this were the NFL, this would be the equivalent of a pitch and catch 80 yard TD on a 10 yard slant with nobody in sight. Del Zotto is just as close to the TB bench as he is to Kucherov, who now has the puck. He has zero chance of closing this huge gap since he didn't put a body on his man to slow him down in the slightest bit and is probably slower than the man he is chasing. In fact, Del Zotto hasn't even hit full speed since he has to do a full change in direction where Kucherov is already on the same path (as the red line shows). John Moore get partial blame as you can see he is now way out of the picture and probably overplayed his man and failed to recognize that the middle of the ice has been completely vacated by Del Zotto.

If blame %'s were being handed out: Del Zotto get 70%, Pouliot gets 20%, and Moore gets 9% (I give Henrik 1% for making first move to a 3rd liner by going for pokecheck when he is clearly a talented enough goalie to just force some no name forward to make the first move instead).

The main point I am making is that there is a trend that Rangers tend to get conservative after first periods when they have the lead. They blew a 2-0 lead in Chicago this past week and even when they hold on for the win, they seem to score early and rely on defense/Henrik for the win. This has worked in past years when Rangers were almost unbeatable with a lead in the 3rd period but that was under Tortorella's system...a polar opposite of AV's. In AV's system, Rangers actually have been outscoring their opponents nicely in the 3rd period and are one of the best in the league believe it or not. This can be explained as well....

(Note: I HATE when the Rangers do this conservative style with an early lead as you can see from the graph below  that only after they go down 2-1 against TB do they completely dominate according to Fenwick)

 

 The early part of the game saw a back and forth between shot attempts where Rangers finally broke through and scored. But from that point on, when the Rangers should be riding momentum, they allow TB to stay in the game as they keep the shots close. Now take a look at what happens after the Lightning's second goal of the game, a gap starts to widen and anyone watching will tell you, the Rangers had their foot on the gas pedal and were relentless in the offensive zone. TB had a few good chances but overall, Rangers were pouring it on and Bishop was simply incredible.

The question is: Why does the gap seem to widen by the end of the 2nd until the end of the game? Forget goals scored, this graph shows 2 completely different games being played right at the midway point. This is something I hope as a Rangers fan that AV can fix because they have the depth at forward to be at least 3 maybe even 4 lines deep to sustain pressure throughout the game. Instead of rolling out the worst pairing they have after giving up a tying goal, I would like to see MDZ-Moore miss some shifts and get closer to 12 minutes of ice time instead of the 15+ they have been seeing and consistent with the usage chart above where it's against 3rd line in the offensive zone.

But we all know the ideal way to handle this is to get the Avalanche GM so drunk that he thinks he sees a talented defenseman on the ice and offers a guy like Stastny to help us get rid of MDZ once and for all!