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Monday, June 2, 2014

Why Rangers are not heavy underdogs entering the Stanley Cup Finals

Before people write off the Rangers as heavy underdogs (which is absurd) consider this:
 
1) Kings have played 7 games in all 3 series so far while playing OT against the Blackhawks in 2 of them. That equals miles on the legs and the main guy who ate those minutes is Drew Doughty, who is averaging around 28 mpg of ice time. PK Subban was logging those kind of minutes and he looked absolutely gassed in games 5 and 6.
 
Due to this, I expect the Rangers to play a very physical style of play, similar to the strategy against MTL, in dominating the puck possession game in the offensive zone while limiting counter-attacks. This was effective in tiring the legs of the D-men on MTL and guys like Zuc, Hags, MSL, and Kreider can use their speed to generate scoring opps, while also keeping them from breaking out in the neutral zone. Kings will likely be ready for the stretch passes and "alley oops" to those guys but speed creates chances and Rangers have a distinct advantage in that department which will keep the Kings on their heels when their top D-line is off the ice.
 
2) The Kings fell behind a bunch of times to the Blackhawks and came back (3 blown 2 goal leads). However, the Rangers demonstrated that when they get an early lead, they are willing to choke the hell  out of the offensive aspect of the game and force you to beat Henrik 5-on-5. I do fear the Carter-King combo blocking Henrik's view but I don't see Gaborik having the open space that he had the luxury of seeing against the Hawks. Crosby and Malkin/ Giroux and Hartnell all had to work with much less ice space and Gaborik/ Kopitar are going to have to find a way to get into prime scoring position.
 
3) The rebound control in the Kings-Hawks series was just horrific. People think Henrik had to make that 1 incredible blocker save and wasn't tested the rest of the night but now see what can happen on any of the 17 other shots that he faced. On Carter's batted in goal, Crawford had a harmless shot on net that could have easily been placed into the corner out of harms way. But he popped the puck straight into the air and didn't have a clue of where it was until Carter knocked it past him.
 
 
 
Apologies for quality but the black circle is where the puck is. Flat on the ice after a 30+foot wrister. This should be a textbook save by sending the puck into the corner as Carter (blue circle) bares down on the goalie. As mentioned above, these were the types of 17 other shots Henrik faced in game 6 against MTL. It's not just about stopping pucks but the rebound control as well. The yellow line is where the puck should be going as the puck is shot at the right leg pad.
 
 
Instead, Crawford pops the puck up in the air (black circle) as he is crouched on the ice. When you talk about big moments in a game 7 at home trying to clinch a Stanley Cup berth, this has to be one of the worst plays your goalie can make for you. Carter bats it in and gets the Kings back in the game. 
 
Kings had 2 strong offensive sets going for them:
1) PP opportunities created by Doughty (great screens from centers in particular)
2) Finding loose pucks/rebounds off of Crawford or other bodies and burying it around the net. Rangers are a much more skilled shot-blocking team as all credit goes to Torts for creating that skill. The angles get cut down and 98% of the time, the blocks don't end up in deflections on their own goalie.
Take the GW goal for another example, which could be looked at as "luck" and everything wrong with hockey how a lucky bounce ends a series. But it was really just awful technique of shot blocking by Leddy. See below the screencap of the setup just before Martinez shoots the puck...
 
 
 
notice how Leddy (#8) is not in the shooting lane of Martinez's shot as he stays with Toffoli (#73) who he actually doesn't even put a stick or body on which leaves him open to a deflection. He is really in bad position here as he isn't impeding Toffoli and he isn't lined up with the shot. He actually has to slide his body over mid-shot to get a piece of it. Other thing to notice is that Martinez has very little angle to shoot as he is cut down by Ben Smith. Kings have absolutely nobody screening Crawford and the only man who can make this shot more difficult is Leddy.
 
 
 
Here is the mid-shot image. See what Leddy is doing with his leg? He sticks it out while sliding over on a harmless wrister that Crawford is in perfect position to eat up in his chest (though who knows whether he would have let up a juicy rebound as he did all series). Leddy still has a few more inches to cover before getting in line with the puck so he can keep it in front of him or make a deliberate deflection. But he decides to continue on the path of just desperately blocking a harmless shot, and ultimately deflects the puck off his stuck out leg and into the net and ending the series.
 
From what Coach AV and he processor in Torts instilled in the Rangers, these types of plays simply won't happen. Henrik was off his game in game 5 but other than that, in the 9 games since going down 3-1 to Pittsburgh, the Rangers have been in complete control of dictating the tempo of gameplay to their style.
 
4) Marian Gaborik - I loved him in NY and felt Tortorella was way too harsh on him (as well as Kreider) for not "buying" into the system. But there is truth to what Torts hated about Gaborik. He will not battle in the corners and is known to wait around slot areas for scoring chances. Rangers probably know better than any other team what this guy does offensively and what he doesn't do defensively. He scored 12 goals in 21 games so far but I expect, and hope, the Rangers make his life a living hell and force him to play some defense in his own zone (good luck getting him to block a shot) and get "dirty" on the boards which he was NOT willing to do in NY.
 
5) Lastly, hot goaltending can give a team confidence and Rangers love the ability to play with a lead in front of a hot Henrik. The kryptonite would be turnovers and dumb penalties which Pouliot can single handedly accomplish. This team is built around Henrik and play with speed and power and not giving up many counter rushes. There is a reason why the Rangers tend to win low-scoring games. That is the kind of game that they want to play. As soon as Dominic Moore scored in game 6 to give a 1-0 lead heading into the 3rd, the Rangers dared Montreal to break through on Henrik for the tying goal with 5 guys set. Had they scored, Rangers would have been forced to go for the 2nd goal but they understand that hockey isn't about scoring 5 goals a game...it's about outscoring your opponent. If Henrik continues his play of late, and the Rangers make the Kings earn every single shift, instead of helping them out by hurting themselves, this will not be a quick series by any means.
 
The biggest test will be how the Kings respond to a brand new series after playing 21 games to get here and having their stars log some serious minutes. Bruins saw Chara get affected with fatigue of 30mpg as well as the Canadiens with PK Subban. Drew Doughty is clearly the catalyst to the Kings blue line and how his legs respond to constant forecheck and physicality of the Rangers forwards, after a grueling series with Chicago, will be the X-factor in how this series plays out.  
 
LGR!
 
 

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Breakdown of how TB scored GW goal and why Del Zotto should stop seeing 15+ min ice time (and why Rangers can't protect a lead anymore)

The Rangers suffered a terrible home loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning 2-1 after collecting 9 out of 10 points in the previous 5 games. But anyone watching the game will tell you that the Rangers completely outplayed the Lightning but when you face a goalie that owns you, like Ben Bishop does (5-0 against the Rangers), you need to understand that it will be a low scoring affair.

Which is exactly what happened last night. Henrik Lundqvist, who is back to his old self after losing playing time to Cam Talbot early on, was being matched by likely Vezina finalist, Ben Bishop. If you don't know who Ben Bishop is, he was stuck on the Senators depth chart behind Craig Anderson and is a 6"6 beast who could be the exact goalie that the US can ride to an upset Gold run in Sochi. Except he got left off because of worries that he can't handle a bigger stage. Last night showed what he is capable of and he was an absolute wall. After Rangers played their usual conservative style after taking a 1-0 early lead. After Victor Hedman scores on a 55 foot slapshot from the point on the PP, Coach AV decides to roll out the defensive pairing of John Moore and MDZ for the following faceoff. Granted, McD and DG5 had just been on the ice for the tying goal but at home, in a likely low scoring game, I would rather see Staal-Stralman pairing, who have been the Rangers best pairing on the season as shown on this player usage chart:





To quickly explain, the Y-axis represents the quality of competition on the ice at the time, where a positive number means the D-man is facing a line that is better than the average NHL line and where a negative number means the competition is lower than average. The x-axis is where the puck/faceoff is when the player comes onto the ice. Since we are only dealing with defensemen in this example, you expect to see a lower offensive zone start % and higher quality of competition for premier defenders for the logical reason that you want them on the ice to defend against top lines in your own blue line where the highest % chance of scoring takes place. The last thing to know is that a "red" bubble means that player has a - relative corsi score on the season and blue means positive (Note: Corsi is a rating given based on shots for/against while a player is on the ice and includes blocked shots). The reason why it is important to use this chart when analyzing corsi is because you will see
2 pairings that are negative corsi and think "they must both be having equally bad years". But a closer look shows that eventhough Girardi-McD have a negative Corsi, they are facing the best competition and start in the offensive zone only 46% of the time. The other red pairing, MDZ-Moore are the complete opposite. They have every reason NOT to give up shots since they are facing below average competition and start over 55% of the time in the offensive zone.

You only need a brief understanding to follow this next point. See that little red dot on the bottom portion smack in the middle? That is Michael Del Zotto's red dot. He is by far their least trusted defenseman when it comes to quality of competition and John Moore is a close second. So who comes out at neutral ice once the Rangers lose momentum and give up a tying goal? The 2 least trusted defensemen on the roster and they live up to their reputations by giving up an inexcusable breakaway opportunity to Tampa's 3rd line and ultimately, the GW goal. Here is my breakdown of the play....specifically what Del Zotto did (or lackthereof).


This first image shows the back end of the designed play by TB off of the faceoff win. The eventual goal scorer, Nikita Kucherov, is seen on the far right, circled in blue, changing directions from end boards to the middle of the ice. If you look closely, you can see Del Zotto, the Ranger in the blue circle, with his skates completely squared up and his right foot is even facing toward the end boards while giving a good amount of space for Kucherov to maneuver however he wants and take a clean path to the middle, which is shown by the red line. The least Del Zotto can do here is close the gap of space between him and the guy he is supposed to be defending so it can throw off the timing of the play. But Del Zotto, as Rangers fans have seen many times this year, decides to sit back eventhough he lacks the speed to make up for lost strides. This is just brutal positioning on his part as we take a look at what happens next...


Here you can see what is beginning to develop. John Moore is the Ranger on the top left corner who has to watch for a cross-diagonal pass to the left winger who is not shown in the picture. That leaves MDZ 1-on-1 with Kucherov with the middle of the ice wide open and MDZ drifting further toward the end boards as explained above. The yellow space is the separation shown in one stride (compared to the first image) and as you can see from this angle, it would take an absolutely blind d-man to not see the breakaway opportunity. The other thing to notice is the change in position by Ranger forward, Benoit Pouliot, who is more known for offensive ability than defensive. In the first image, he is taking away the middle of the ice pass but in the 2nd image above, you see just how far past the TB defenseman he has gone. If he stayed in line as the original image, this pass probably doesn't get through or at least throws off the timing. So now you see 2 Rangers overplay toward the endboard leaving the middle of the ice wide open. The pass is already being sent off the stick at this point and the next image will completely shock you...


Finally, you see that yellow space become wider than a full body length. If this were the NFL, this would be the equivalent of a pitch and catch 80 yard TD on a 10 yard slant with nobody in sight. Del Zotto is just as close to the TB bench as he is to Kucherov, who now has the puck. He has zero chance of closing this huge gap since he didn't put a body on his man to slow him down in the slightest bit and is probably slower than the man he is chasing. In fact, Del Zotto hasn't even hit full speed since he has to do a full change in direction where Kucherov is already on the same path (as the red line shows). John Moore get partial blame as you can see he is now way out of the picture and probably overplayed his man and failed to recognize that the middle of the ice has been completely vacated by Del Zotto.

If blame %'s were being handed out: Del Zotto get 70%, Pouliot gets 20%, and Moore gets 9% (I give Henrik 1% for making first move to a 3rd liner by going for pokecheck when he is clearly a talented enough goalie to just force some no name forward to make the first move instead).

The main point I am making is that there is a trend that Rangers tend to get conservative after first periods when they have the lead. They blew a 2-0 lead in Chicago this past week and even when they hold on for the win, they seem to score early and rely on defense/Henrik for the win. This has worked in past years when Rangers were almost unbeatable with a lead in the 3rd period but that was under Tortorella's system...a polar opposite of AV's. In AV's system, Rangers actually have been outscoring their opponents nicely in the 3rd period and are one of the best in the league believe it or not. This can be explained as well....

(Note: I HATE when the Rangers do this conservative style with an early lead as you can see from the graph below  that only after they go down 2-1 against TB do they completely dominate according to Fenwick)

 
 The early part of the game saw a back and forth between shot attempts where Rangers finally broke through and scored. But from that point on, when the Rangers should be riding momentum, they allow TB to stay in the game as they keep the shots close. Now take a look at what happens after the Lightning's second goal of the game, a gap starts to widen and anyone watching will tell you, the Rangers had their foot on the gas pedal and were relentless in the offensive zone. TB had a few good chances but overall, Rangers were pouring it on and Bishop was simply incredible.

The question is: Why does the gap seem to widen by the end of the 2nd until the end of the game? Forget goals scored, this graph shows 2 completely different games being played right at the midway point. This is something I hope as a Rangers fan that AV can fix because they have the depth at forward to be at least 3 maybe even 4 lines deep to sustain pressure throughout the game. Instead of rolling out the worst pairing they have after giving up a tying goal, I would like to see MDZ-Moore miss some shifts and get closer to 12 minutes of ice time instead of the 15+ they have been seeing and consistent with the usage chart above where it's against 3rd line in the offensive zone.

But we all know the ideal way to handle this is to get the Avalanche GM so drunk that he thinks he sees a talented defenseman on the ice and offers a guy like Stastny to help us get rid of MDZ once and for all!




Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Live Blog Rangers-Devils Game 5

                                                                               FIRST PERIOD

16:00 in the 1st: Already down 2-0 and I am one goal away from raiding my fine collection of whiskey. As for those goals, first looked like a Ranger took a stick to the face or something but it was only one replay and maybe that is why "the other Gionta" was wide open in front. How do the gods remind New Yorkers that we should stop praying to Henrik because as they have shown time and time again, they control NY sports? Of course...Staal wipes out on a pinch and forces Anisimov, who can't even handle the position he is paid to play, to play in front of the net. Kicks puck in 2-0 game.

Later in the first: Gaborik gets a gorgeous feed from Fedotenko and of course shoots for the upper corner when he has half an empty net. Please remind me the next time I applaud a Rangers high price signing the list of players that Rangers pay over $7 million to solve our scoring woes yet never do it (Bure, Lindros, Holik, Gomez, Drury...). The fact is, Gaborik has been the worst player per $ spent on the ice this series so it is completely normal that he missed from 4 feet out.

Ranger look tired just like Game 4 and this can get really ugly if we don't establish puck possession. Rangers can't win a game catching up from behind. Not when we get 1.3 goals per game from forwards in the playoffs.

11:00 in the 1st: 3-0 I can't drink this stuff quick enough. Need to go on a run soon! So now finally Henrik joins the rest of the Rangers and makes a bad play. Zajac scores on a simple snap shot and we are officially fighting fate. Rangers are 0-6 when giving up more than 3 goals and haven't scored more than 3 (without empty netter) in what feels like since 94'. Side note: Announcers point out that it was indeed Stepan who got clipped by a high stick. Uncalled penalty leads to goal....please don't let this be Ottawa all over again!

I must point out that the Rangers fans are cheering "Lets go Rangers" like the national anthem just ended. You don't see that in many venues and is truly special. Remember how Devils fans left with 3 minutes in Game 3? We don't leave until the lights go out!

5:30 in the 1st: I don't know why this always happens but Rangers FINALLY have some signs of life on offense. Dubinsky never scores so we aren't getting too excited but he is very good at keeping the puck in the cycle on the boards. Maybe the momentum will wake up the boys!

3:30 in the 1st: Thank G-d we are on the board and I would like to say it is because I cried and my tears went to heaven but I will admit that it was more of a Salvador/Brodeur combo of screwups. Salvador makes awful play of trying to dump in with 2 men on and leads to awkward Prust breakaway. Eventhough puck is rolling and Prust hasn't scored all playoffs, Marty makes first move where he throws his legs up, stick out, and probably closes his eyes and lets a weak sliding puck go under him. Rangers fans never apologize and we will take a goal if the ref picks it up and throws it in himself.

 2:00 left in the 1st: McDonaugh turns over the puck to Kovy and thankfully he ran out of room. If we go back to making mistakes, this game will be over by the second period. Need to keep this 2 goal game knowing Gaborik.

End of 1st: Really wonder what Torts has to say being Richards/Cally/Krieder were non-existent players and we clearly need them to make any sort of comeback. Please get these guys going! Marty looks shaky as his rebound control has been off all series. We just don't make him work and without bodies in front to clean up or cause havoc, his job gets that much easier. Good offense will be our great defense if we are going to make a comeback and not by waiting for the Devils to make a mistake in our zone because they are too disciplined for that.

                                                                       SECOND PERIOD
A GOAL ALREADY?!? I hate to say I told you so this early but I had just written we need bodies in front of the net and Cally to get going. We get a bounce our way and is now a one goal game! True testament to Rangers hockey and to the fans that we don't quit. Just gotta stick with what works and not play out our elements and hope the bounces keep coming our way.

17:00 in 2nd- Smart hook by Zubrus...knowing he was last line of defense and has to know the Rangers PP is as likely to score as Homo Larry is to change his dance. I want to make them pay but odds say no. As I type, the light goes on and Rangers are inches from tying the game. WHY CAN'T THESE EVER GO IN FOR US?! That can't hit any more inside of the post!

13:30 in the 2nd- Seems like Devils have been practicing getting their forwards behind the defense waiting for A) shot block B) Henrik rebound C)Intentional shot wide to avoid block and come in front. Rangers coaching better have the defense ready for this cuz it seems to be the only way they score aside from deflections.

HA lets all notice how Brandon Prust just embellished for the first time all playoffs. I asked for Cally to be more "hurt" when Kovy speared him but that performance by Prust makes me second guess that. Awful acting but at least we got more room to skate with 4 on 4.


                                                                      THIRD PERIOD
One minute in and I just woke my sleeping baby...and I am not apologizing! I have bee saying all series that Marty has shown signs of mental lapses that we just never get to test because of lack of pressure. For the second time tonight, Marty makes a huge mistake and it allows the Rangers to tie the game. It is pure poetry that the man credited with the goal is Marian Gaborik...the goat of the series. It is never too late in sports to redeem yourself and Gaborik is back in my good graces. Richards has some work to do but there is 15 minutes left. This will go down as one of the most memorable comebacks in Rangers-Devils history  if rangers can pull it off.

Thinking about it, sending Marty home in what could be his final ECF series is every Rangers fan dream.

Just as I say that Gaborik is out of the goathouse, Richards says "THIS IS MY GOATHOUSE!" Almost scores on Henrik which would really be the only way he can score at this point. Hockey gods shows their power and might once again. I believe so please leave us alone!!!

JESSICA SANCHEZ GOT ROBBED!!!!!

With less than 7 minutes left, I must say between tonight and last night's Kings-Coyotes game, NHL must be doing a disaster of a job with marketing if they can't get fans to watch.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

See the difference between these 2 game winning shots from last night?


There were some very exciting NBA games last night that didn't have to be 2 top teams going at it with each other to get viewers. What I mean is that you expect the Heat-Lakers game on Christmas to create buzz but when the 19-4 Celtics go into MSG and play an instant classic against the beat on bad team Knicks, not to be confused with Jets though both do the same thing, it has to put a smile on your face.

I am accepting defeat as Paul Pierce's shot went through. I do claim that there should've been 0.7 seconds on the clock (maybe even 0.9) as oppose to the 0.4 shown. The clock stops when the ball goes through the hoop and not when it hits the floor. With Amare hitting that miracle 3 pointer, it kinda leaves a bitter taste thinking what is (story of NYer's life!)
But this is a blogplaint and it has to do with a different exciting game from last night. The Spurs were tied with the mediocre T-Wolves and it came down to a final possession. Manu Ginobili took a hop stop dribble and sank a game winning jumper. Very similar to Paul Pierces GW but I found a very striking difference in the styles of taking what is called "a step back jumper".

Here is Ginobilis:

I can't imagine what the definition of a travel is at this point. It seems to be pretty clear that Ginobili picked up the dribble and his left foot comes down and then does the step back hop. If you watch Paul Pierces winner against the Knicks you can see a more clean step back:



Pierce maintains his dribble with his right hand while stepping back and the hop is a continuation of that. However, by Ginobili, it appears he created ALOT of space by simply stepping back then jumping. Seemingly impossible to defend when a player does that and I don't understand why nobody on the T-Wolves cared to argue. The simple theory is that at that point, they realized suffering a defeat like that isn't so bad and helps them get that #1 pick rather than fight about it and acting like you even care about the record. 
The gem that is lacking from the Spurs that we got to see from the Celtics is the post shot celebration. Chad Ochocinco must've texted Pierce after the game "I can give lessons for $400/hr if you want". When your star player hits a GW shot, 99% of the time, the team runs to that player and mobs him. But the Celtics are no typical team, they are a bunch of egomaniac smack talkers who all took their own shots at the Garden crowd.
Heres a picture that captures what I am talking about:


As you can see, Nate, who had absolutely NOTHING to do with the Celtics winning, is still on the floor from completely failing when trying to jump on Pierces back for what seemed like the 10th time. Seriously, how touchy do you think Nate Robinson is in the locker rooms after seeing him like that in public? Garnett, who first grabbed his crotch as if hes guarding it from Nates wondering hands, is bowing to Spike Lee as if to say "Thank you, I avoided an upset and couldnt play a stitch of interior defense but Pierce bailed us out but you know its really ALL ME" and Allen who is just running around looking for someone to hug but couldn't because Pierce and Garnett were too busy checking themselves out in the imaginary mirror. Seriously, if the line "act like you have been there before" ever meant something, its here! Amare hit a 3 pointer that would've been 10 times more dramatic since at home, after Pierces crushing shot, beating a 19-4 rival, yet all he did was run to his bench and jump around with his teammates. (Yes it ended up going under review and overturned but the first instant moments it was called a basket and appeared Amare saved the team) Was anyone else wondering what the hell are these green idiots doing? Pierce spent 2 minutes running laps Santonio Holmes style and Doc Rivers was busy staring at this carnival going on the court. I am pretty sure Pierces lazy eye was still seeing the Boston fans and something told him that he was in front of people that actually like him. 

Looking forward to Friday night seeing if after Wade hits a game winner, if him, lebron and bosh have a threesome on the knicks logo at halfcourt.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Mike Vick is a moron for this...

Michael Vick article on ESPN here

I love what is going on with the whole Michael Vick redemption story- dogfighting ring, goes to jail, comeback to NFL and star again, these stories are always good for the NFL and the first big hollywood studio to buy the rights to it. But I feel like this is either a joke or Vick trying to find exactly where the line is. Congrats #7, you found the it!!!

Come on now Vick, telling the media you would like to own a dog again?!? That is hysterical. You may have gotten the most probowl votes this year but last year's halloween most popular costumes were people wearing Vick jerseys with little puppy dolls attached to them. If I can still remember those commercials from PETA showing images of pitbulls in rehab looking for a home, then it is definitely still too soon to tell the public about that itching for a dog like Lindsay Lohan gets the itch for a snort...can't be a good thing! Vick thinking of getting a dog is like Madoff asking for a position to run an investment group again! I could just picture Vick up all night in a heavy sweat saying to himself  "Just one more dog thats all I need and I'll get my fix!"


VickMy daughters miss having one, and that's the hardest thing: Telling them that we can't have one because of my actions.


That's right Mr. Vick you will have to tell your daughter she can't have one because of your actions. That should be the hardest thing you have to say to her...of course beating out: "Hey babe, I have to go to jail for at least a year so no daddy" or "Baby girl, I lost all our money because I used your playground in the backyard for an organized dog fighting ring...oh and sorry about Fluffy though, she just wasnt a good fighter and you know what happens to bad fighting dogs right sweetie?".


Where the hell is this guy's priorities? A broke, ex-con's hardest thing is telling his kid she can't have a dog? Get her a damn cat! Unless you have some other home in Virignia that hasn't been discovered yet where cats fight over a ball of yarn and loser gets fed to the pitbulls. 


Just when fans start warming up to Vick and seeing he still has entertaining skills and can move around like no other QB, he sets himself back. Most people will find this cute and give sympathy to the Vick family for the lack of ability to get a dog. I, on the other hand, feel this is worse than that kid who held up his classmates saying "I'd like to give this whole school thing another try!" It ain't happening!

What would have made this article truly hysterical would've been had the reporter responded to Vicks comment: "Why do you feel you can't have a dog?" If it's okay for Vick to ask for one, it should be okay to ask why not. That is how you know it's too soon. First bring a Super Bowl to Philly, then you can have all the dogs you want, but word of advice, don't let your daughter ask for strong pitbulls Mike!
                                                  

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

This is why you never trust ESPN!

Hello readers,
The reason that I am so jolly today isn't because Yankees signed Russel Martin because he sucks. It isn't because I hit 300 pageviews (but that is awesome thanks for the love!) but rather because I can say I TOLD YOU SO! And not the Bill Simmons version where you make 20 calls and get one right then brag about it. I am 1-1 on this issue and looking forward to more in the future.

If you are reader of previous posts, of course you know I am referring to the Lebron James of baseball, Cliff Lee. After meaningless reports and articles about HYPOTHETICALS (that comes up alot now these days) of what the Yankees would look like with Lee and Sabathia versus Bostons improved lineup or the lunches that Nolan Ryan had with Lee discussing his return, we learn Lee said F U to both and went to philly.

Read ESPN Article on "shocking" return of Cliff Lee here



Now Boston fans will instantly claim the division in December as usual and other media outlets will say its because those fans spit on Lee's wife last year. But are you going to trust the same reporters who told you Crawford was going to Anaheim and Lee was going to the Yankees or Rangers? I never did and still won't! The reason can't be because fans spit on Lee because philly is known as the most ruthless city in sports (Cleveland would be here had they actually taken lessons from phily fans on how to be properly ruthless...Lebron came into Quickens smiling and left even happier). The reason this surprise signing with the Phillies happened is coming up and its going to blow your minds.

CLIFF LEE WENT TO THE PHILLIES BECAUSE THATS WHERE HE WANTS TO GO! Holy crap I just busted the story wide open. Wait how could it be? The Yankees were so close and so were the Rangers and they offered crazy money and a month ago Cashman had dinner with him in Arkansas? Here is why sports fans.

Had the news broken normally like I always beg ESPN for, this would have been "Lee talking to some teams but hasn't said where he wants to go yet" for the last month. Tell me skeptical reader, has Lee ONCE spoken to the media himself and said he loves NY or Texas??? No, then why the hell are we surprised he chose philly. He was there already and had great success with a great hitting lineup. They couldn't afford him so traded him to Seattle. But he made friends there and for some reason, between the Yankees ego of thinking they can sign everyone they want in the offseason to Nolan Ryan and Ron Washington telling people they think Lee is coming back, we lost sight of the true facts. This happens way too much in the media now (see previous post about Tarvaris Jackson coverage) and needs to stop.

The media is to blame for Lee not coming to NY- Not Cashman, Steinbrenners, Rangers, Jeters contract dealings...the media. Why? Because they made a story out of nothing and made everyones hopes go up (sound familiar, I wrote this last week) and made Lee sound like he "spurned" the Yankees. He didn't! He used their aggressive contract to get more from the other teams he actually wanted to go to! And if you are shocked, whos fault is that? ESPNs fault thats who. If they had insiders then they would know Philly had an interest and that Lee wasn't sold on Texas or NY. But they didnt as thats because there is no such thing as an insider, just someone whos job is to cover sports.

I am not going to compare this to Lebron because I know the responses already. Lebron was Jesus to Cleveland and homegrown and promised championship and other bullcrap. Fine! But its like Lebron because everyone thought it was going to be Cleveland, NY or Chicago for Lebron but he chose Miami out of nowhere. Now the Phillies did the same thing telling Lee he can pitch with the 2 Roys and Hamels and rip up the league, kinda like the Heat. Instead of being upset at the Yankees and Lee, fans should be upset at the media. Stop swinging stories to build up viewer interest and start giving facts. Enough wild speculation stories that mean nothing!



Heres a non-sport example of ESPN reporting: Minka Kelly may dump Jeter because Brad Pitt showed interest in her. Angelina Jolie would end up with A-Rod if this were to happen and we'll keep you posted on this amazing story. Yes its an amazing story but what about in 2 weeks when Kelly says I love Jeter and wouldnt leave him for anyone and Pitt says he doesn't even know who she is. Does anyone say "Who the hell reported this story?" NO! We do what we are doing now- say WOW I CANT BELIEVE SHE ALMOST LEFT HIM! How freakin stupid is America??? (Ed. Note: Never bad to create opportunity to add a picture of Minka Kelly)

I am not shocked...I am not buying this crap. I am simply waiting for the FA Tracker on mlb.com to update and tell me who signed where and that is all I need to know. This isnt Hollywood or people magazine, its sports! The mainstream of fans are men and we dont care for drama and crap and who A-Rod is dating. We care about which 6"4 225 pound super male is going to be batting in the cleanup spot and how much beer will cost at the games. Its the pansies and ESPN that are trying to convince you that you care about stupid lunches with players so they get more viewers on TV.

Quickly to give serious input on 5 year deal for Lee, I honestly don't get how nobody is thinking a 32 year old who got hit hard on by the Giants offense on the biggest stage has NO risks while getting a 5 year deal. Jamie Moyer throws 40 MPH so hes okay to throw till 100 but Lee needs his fastball to setup the changeup and hit his spots and if he starts feeling the effects of age, I can't imagine what that would do to his productivity. I am not saying he isn't a dominant pitcher now, but just something to think about with the Kevin Browns of the world nodding their head like "Hmm Mmm, know what you mean" Screw you Kevin Brown, i wish Madoff stole the millions from you since you stole it from NY! (Sorry never got to truly vent about that jerkoff)

Monday, December 13, 2010

Meaningless Stat: Miami's BIG 3 Combined 75 points in 3 straight games

The ESPN Bottomline gives a stat about tonights game between the Heat and Hornets that Wade, James, Bosh (In order of importance) have combined for 75 points in 3 (after tonight 4) straight games.



Here is why that stat is meaningless:

Take tonight for example where the big 3 combined for exactly 75 points. Rest of team: 21 points on 23 shots. I don't think there has ever been sucha team where 3 guys take a combination of 47 of 70 team shots and 32 of 38 free throws. Here is a stat I wish the NBA would implement and I always personally take into account myself when judging a game. The amount of potential points a player has versus actual points. For example:

Wade took 13 shots, 3 3PT attempts and 17 FT attempts which equals 46 potential points. He scored 32 which is 69% (pretty good!).

Lebron James took 16 shots, 3 3PT, and 10 FT which is 45 potential points and he scored only 20 total points (44%).

Chris Bosh took 18 shots and 5 FT for 41 potential points and he scored 23 actual points (56%)

Combined, had the Big 3 hit all shots and FT attempted, they would've scored 132 points but actually scored 75 (57%) which doesnt seem that impressive anymore. Compare this to the Knicks big 3 of Amare, Felton and Chandler in their last games against Denver and Washington.

DENVER
Amare- 30 out of 50 potential points (60%)

Felton- 19 out of 39 potential points (49%)

Chandler- 27 out 45 potential points (60%)

Combined 76 out of 134 potential points (57%)

WASHINGTON
Amare- 36 out of 59 (61%)
Felton- 13 out of 40 (33%)
Chandler- 16 out of 21 (76%)

Combined 65 points out of 120 potential points (54%)

Point of these stats is to show that even with Feltons off night of 5-17 shooting, had Chandler taken another 20 points worth of shots (because Miami's Big 3 always take 40 points worth each a game during 4 game run), at his rate he wouldve had 32 which means they would combine for at least 75 points too. But guys like Gallo (5 shots, 9 FT), Douglas (10 shots) and Fields (7 shots, 6 FT) take shots away from those 3 because they have more depth. The Heat don't have that since Arroyo took 8 shots and Chalmers took 5 shots and 4 FT and rest of team hardly touched the ball! The main reason why the Heat have been winning (and big 3 hitting 75 points) is because Wade is on fire scoring 30+ in 3 straight games while hitting almost 70% of his shots! If you get someone doing that, its pretty easy to ask Lebron and Bosh to take 15+ shots each and help get 75 combined! The attention should be solely on Wade stepping up...its like saying that when Peyton Hillis runs for 250 yards and 3 TDs in a game that Colt McCoy threw for 50 yards and 2 INT, that the Cleveland Browns offensive trio of Hillis, McCoy and Ben Watson (yes hes there #1 receiver) combined to score 21 points to carry the offense! Give credit where credit is due and that is to Dwayne Wade and not the "trio"

So good try in attempting to impress me ESPN but if the Big 3 were to really make a mark in the NBA, try having all 3 guys get 65% of potential points in a game for 4 straight games.


SPECIAL!

Looking at these pictures, does it look like Lebron is feeling remorse or regret for leaving that homeless town of Cleveland?









Yeah and hes in Sunny Miami Beach not Industrial Cleveland. Maybe he did it in the wrong way but man, hard to say he made a bad decision overall!